Catalyst Outcomes
The most recent resolved FDA decisions and trial readouts with a clear result or a move of 15% or more. Upcoming decisions are on the FDA decisions page; how our predictions scored is on the track record.
September 2026
- Sep 22MRNA Phase 2 readout — Positive+6%
- Sep 15ZURA Phase 2 readout — Negative-5%
- Sep 15NVSEF Phase 2 readout — Positive+5%
- Sep 15DSGN Phase 2 readout — Negative-10%
- Sep 15NAMS Phase 2 readout — Negative-5%
- Sep 15ARGX Phase 3 readout — Positive+16%
- Sep 15AVIR Phase 3 readout — Negative-6%
- Sep 15MRK Phase 3 readout — Positive+13%
- Sep 10ATALF conference presentation — Negative-20%
- Sep 10BHVN regulatory event — Negative-15%
- Sep 9TYRA Data Readout — Negative-18%
- Sep 9CMPS Data Readout — Positive+8%
- Sep 9TYRA Phase 2 readout — Negative-18%
- Sep 8INBX Phase 2 readout — Negative-6%
- Sep 8ROIV Phase 2 readout — Positive+19%
- Sep 3RNXT Data Readout — Negative-6%
- Sep 3NYXH Data Readout — Positive+17%
August 2026
- Aug 31KPTI NDA filing — Positive+10%
- Aug 31RHHBY Phase 3 readout — Positive+5%
- Aug 25NVS Phase 3 readout — Positive+6%
- Aug 20MRNA Data Readout — Negative-24%
- Aug 20EXOZ conference presentation — Positive+10%
- Aug 17ARGX Phase 3 readout — Positive+16%
- Aug 15BIVI Phase 2 readout — Negative-34%
- Aug 15KPTI Phase 3 readout — Negative-73%
- Aug 12NTHI Phase 2 readout — Negative-20%
- Aug 12NTHI Data Readout — Negative-20%
- Aug 12MRK Phase 3 readout — Positive+13%
- Aug 5HELP Data Readout — Positive+13%
July 2026
- Jul 31KPTI Phase 3 readout — Negative-73%
- Jul 30AARD regulatory event — Positive+20%
- Jul 30MRNA Phase 3 readout — Positive+6%
- Jul 27AZN Phase 3 readout — Negative-6%
- Jul 24LSTA Acquisition — Negative-21%
- Jul 22INCY Phase 2 readout — Negative-6%
- Jul 17CELC PDUFA decision — Positive+7%
- Jul 13QTTB Data Readout — Positive+91%
- Jul 12BIIB conference presentation — Negative-8%
- Jul 9IONS Phase 3 readout — Negative-24%
- Jul 8CMMB Acquisition — Negative-29%
- Jul 7AZN Phase 3 readout — Negative-6%
- Jul 1ALMS Phase 2 readout — Negative-5%
- Jul 1LLY regulatory event — Positive+7%
June 2026
- Jun 30EDSA Phase 2 readout — Positive+6%
- Jun 30MBRX Data Readout — Positive+11%
- Jun 30CRIS Trial Start — Positive+18%
- Jun 30CGTX Phase 2 readout — Positive+6%
- Jun 29TVRD Phase 2 readout — Positive+27%
- Jun 26HELP Data Readout — Positive+8%
- Jun 23ARGX conference presentation — Negative-6%
- Jun 22CLRB Phase 2 readout — Positive+12%
- Jun 17ICCM regulatory event — Positive+200%
- Jun 17OCUL conference presentation — Positive+8%
- Jun 17PTCT regulatory event — Positive+7%
- Jun 16IMDX Data Readout — Negative-7%
- Jun 15CODX Phase 2 readout — Negative-12%
- Jun 15RVMD Phase 3 readout — Positive+41%
- Jun 15MOLN Phase 2 readout — Negative-6%
- Jun 15ZBIO Phase 2 readout — Negative-6%
- Jun 15CYTK Phase 3 readout — Positive+17%
- Jun 15INCY Phase 2 readout — Negative-6%
- Jun 9RARE PDUFA decision — Positive+6%
- Jun 8BMEA conference presentation — Negative-9%
- Jun 4ZBIO Data Readout — Positive+6%
- Jun 4MPLT Phase 2 readout — Positive+6%
- Jun 1MOLN Phase 3 readout — Negative-6%
- Jun 1ARDX Phase 3 readout — Negative-5%
- Jun 1JBIO Phase 1 readout — Negative-12%
- Jun 1JBIO conference presentation — Negative-12%
- Jun 1KURA conference presentation — Negative-11%
- Jun 1OCS Phase 3 readout — Negative-23%
May 2026
- May 31VRTX Phase 3 readout — Positive+8%
- May 26KURA Data Readout — Negative-7%
- May 20GH PDUFA decision — Positive+17%
- May 18REGN Phase 2 readout — Negative-10%
- May 18DSGN Phase 1 readout — Negative-26%
- May 18QNCX Phase 2 readout — Negative-13%
- May 15CODX Phase 3 readout — Negative-21%
- May 15TNGX Phase 2 readout — Negative-17%
- May 15NMRA Phase 3 readout — Negative-7%
- May 15VSTM PDUFA decision — Negative-8%
- May 15SBFM Phase 2 readout — Negative-39%
- May 15VNRX conference presentation — Negative-9%
- May 15CODX Phase 2 readout — Negative-21%
- May 14RGNX Phase 3 readout — Negative-38%
- May 13KMDA regulatory event — Negative-7%
- May 12OLMA Data Readout — Negative-6%
- May 12REPL PDUFA decision — Positive+9%
- May 6RGNX Data Readout — Negative-38%
- May 5CRL Other — Positive+8%
April 2026
- Apr 30ANRO Phase 2 readout — Positive+6%
- Apr 30CYTK PDUFA decision — Positive+7%
- Apr 29OCUL Phase 3 readout — Negative-21%
- Apr 28SNGX Data Readout — Negative-70%
- Apr 23VNRX Other — Negative-9%
- Apr 21NVO Phase 3 readout — Negative-16%
- Apr 15AAPG Phase 2 readout — Positive+5%
- Apr 15VMAR Phase 2 readout — Negative-7%
- Apr 15CALC Phase 2 readout — Positive+9%
- Apr 2RCKT PDUFA decision — Negative-20%
- Apr 1VRDN Phase 3 readout — Negative-7%
- Apr 1JSPR Phase 2 readout — Negative-9%
March 2026
- Mar 31AURA Phase 2 readout — Positive+8%
- Mar 20QURE regulatory event — Positive+5%
- Mar 18QURE regulatory event — Negative-6%
- Mar 10SBFM Phase 3 readout — Positive+7%
- Mar 10VNDA Other — Positive+10%
February 2026
- Feb 28NVS Phase 3 readout — Positive-1%
- Feb 26NVS Phase 3 readout — Positive+1%
- Feb 24AZN Phase 2 readout — Positive+0%
- Feb 20VNDA Data Readout — Negative-6%
- Feb 18PFE Phase 3 readout — Positive-2%
- Feb 18MRNA Phase 2 readout — Positive+6%
- Feb 17PFE Phase 2 readout — Positive+0%
- Feb 11SSKN Other-69%
- Feb 10AQST PDUFA decision — Negative-3%
- Feb 6ROIV Data Readout — Positive+22%
- Feb 1VNDA PDUFA decision — Negative+3%
January 2026
- Jan 29NVS Phase 3 readout — Positive+1%
- Jan 29RGNX regulatory event — Positive+5%
- Jan 21VERO Other-64%
- Jan 16NRXP Other — Positive+6%
- Jan 15TNGX Phase 2 readout — Negative-6%
- Jan 15BCTX Phase 3 readout — Negative-8%
- Jan 15FDMT Phase 2 readout — Negative-13%
- Jan 13TVTX PDUFA decision — Negative-15%
- Jan 7CODX PDUFA decision — Positive+6%
December 2025
- Dec 22CLRB Phase 2 readout — Positive+7%
- Dec 15PVLA Phase 2 readout — Negative-10%
- Dec 15CADL Phase 2 readout — Negative-9%
- Dec 15LTRN Phase 2 readout — Negative-6%
September 2025
- Sep 18NVO regulatory event — Positive+6%
- Sep 16PFE PDUFA decision — Approved+0%
August 2025
- Aug 15TNXP PDUFA decision — Negative-14%
- Aug 12INSM PDUFA decision — Positive+8%
July 2025
- Jul 10PFE PDUFA decision — Approved+0%
June 2025
- Jun 12URGN PDUFA decision — Positive+52%
- Jun 1ALNY Phase 1 readout — Positive+7%
May 2025
- May 14ABBV PDUFA decision — Negative-6%
April 2025
- Apr 10MIRM PDUFA decision — Negative-6%
March 2025
February 2025
- Feb 24AMRX PDUFA decision — Positive+6%
- Feb 12GALDY Other — Positive+1%
- Feb 12GALDY regulatory event — Approved+1%
- Feb 7AZN Phase 3 readout — Negative-6%
- Feb 3ABBV Phase 2 readout — Negative-9%
January 2025
- Jan 30CAPR Phase 3 readout — Positive+7%
November 2024
- Nov 15SNDX PDUFA decision — Negative-6%
- Nov 1DERM PDUFA decision — Positive+7%
October 2024
- Oct 29RDY PDUFA decision — Positive-5%