July 30, 2026 · Phase 3 readout
MRNA Phase 3 readout: a positive outcome, +6.3%
On July 30, 2026, mRNA-1345 — Moderna, Inc. (Respiratory Syncytial Virus) reached its Phase 3 readout. The result was a positive outcome, and the stock moved +6.3% in the window around the event. It had already run -20.6% in the 30 days into the catalyst — the kind of pre-event run-up that often precedes binary readouts.
The move
$54.49
1d before
$57.92
Event day
$54.82
1d after
$56.99
5d after
Our prediction vs. the result
CatalystAlert called this one neutral (+0.6% expected); the stock actually moved +6.3%. Model confidence at the time: 40%.
See the full scored track recordPre-catalyst setup
-20.6%
30-day run-up
7260%
30-day volatility
0.6×
volume spike