On June 1, 2026, Tenapanor 50 MG — Ardelyx (Irritable Bowel Syndrome With Constipation (IBS-C)) reached its Phase 3 readout. The result was a negative outcome, and the stock moved -5.1% in the window around the event. It had already run -12.2% in the 30 days into the catalyst — the kind of pre-event run-up that often precedes binary readouts.
The move
$6.04
1d before
$5.73
Event day
$5.52
1d after
$5.56
5d after
Our prediction vs. the result
CatalystAlert called this one up (+6.3% expected); the stock actually moved -5.1%. Model confidence at the time: 60%.
See the full scored track recordPre-catalyst setup
-12.2%
30-day run-up
3320%
30-day volatility
0.7×
volume spike