October 5, 2026 · Phase 2 readout
MRNA Phase 2 readout: a positive outcome, +6.9%
On October 5, 2026, mRNA-1189 — Moderna, Inc. (Epstein-Barr Virus Infection) reached its Phase 2 readout. The result was a positive outcome, and the stock moved +6.9% in the window around the event. It had already run +30.5% in the 30 days into the catalyst — the kind of pre-event run-up that often precedes binary readouts.
The move
$190.01
1d before
$203.21
Event day
$187.46
1d after
$187.46
5d after
Our prediction vs. the result
CatalystAlert called this one neutral (+0.3% expected); the stock actually moved +6.9%. Model confidence at the time: 200%.
See the full scored track recordPre-catalyst setup
+30.5%
30-day run-up
6994%
30-day volatility
0.7×
volume spike