October 15, 2026 · Phase 3 readout
MIRM Phase 3 readout: a negative outcome, -7.5%
On October 15, 2026, Maralixibat — Mirum Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (Biliary Atresia) reached its Phase 3 readout. The result was a negative outcome, and the stock moved -7.5% in the window around the event. It had already run -12.4% in the 30 days into the catalyst — the kind of pre-event run-up that often precedes binary readouts.
The move
$86.06
1d before
$79.62
Event day
$79.96
1d after
$82.39
5d after
Our prediction vs. the result
CatalystAlert called this one neutral (+3.2% expected); the stock actually moved -7.5%. Model confidence at the time: 75%.
See the full scored track recordPre-catalyst setup
-12.4%
30-day run-up
4134%
30-day volatility
1.4×
volume spike