September 22, 2026 · Phase 2 readout
MRNA Phase 2 readout: a positive outcome, +5.6%
On September 22, 2026, mRNA-1405 — Moderna, Inc. (Norovirus Acute Gastroenteritis) reached its Phase 2 readout. The result was a positive outcome, and the stock moved +5.6% in the window around the event. It had already run +6.1% in the 30 days into the catalyst — the kind of pre-event run-up that often precedes binary readouts.
The move
$172.94
1d before
$182.56
Event day
$182.56
1d after
$182.56
5d after
Our prediction vs. the result
CatalystAlert called this one neutral (+3.7% expected); the stock actually moved +5.6%. Model confidence at the time: 59%.
See the full scored track recordPre-catalyst setup
+6.1%
30-day run-up
9247%
30-day volatility
0.7×
volume spike