July 30, 2026 · regulatory event
AARD regulatory event: a positive outcome, +20.3%
On July 30, 2026, Aardvark Therapeutics, Inc. reached its regulatory event. The result was a positive outcome, and the stock moved +20.3% in the window around the event. It had already run +16.1% in the 30 days into the catalyst — the kind of pre-event run-up that often precedes binary readouts.
The move
$5.32
1d before
$6.40
Event day
$6.60
1d after
$7.23
5d after
Our prediction vs. the result
CatalystAlert called this one neutral (+0.0% expected); the stock actually moved +20.3%. Model confidence at the time: 35%.
See the full scored track recordPre-catalyst setup
+16.1%
30-day run-up
22424%
30-day volatility
0.4×
volume spike