Catalyst Dossier · compiled by CeliA 🧫

Novavax, Inc. (NVAX)

Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances) · market cap $1.5B · as of 2026-07-02

Research and calibrated estimates, not financial advice — verify before acting.

Next catalyst

2026-08-05

Earnings

Pipeline

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Novavax, Inc. (NVAX) is a Gaithersburg, Maryland-based vaccine developer with 952 employees and a $1.56B market cap, best known for its protein-subunit COVID-19 vaccine NVX-CoV2373, which is commercialized by Sanofi. The company returned to profitability in 2025 ($440M net income on $1.12B revenue) after years of heavy losses, though it carries a dense pipeline across COVID-19 variants, RSV, and influenza. An August 2026 earnings report is the nearest identifiable catalyst, against a backdrop of 27% short interest and analyst targets ranging from $7 to $25.

The catalyst path

2026-08-05Earningsimp 5/10

Pipeline

Asset	Phase	Indication
RSV F vaccine (0.5mL injection)	Phase 2	Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infections
NVX-CoV2373 (5μg)	Phase 3	COVID-19
XBB.1.5 Vaccine (Booster)	Phase 3	COVID-19
SARS-CoV-2 rS/Matrix-M1 Adjuvant (Initial Vaccination Period)	Phase 3	COVID-19
NVX-CoV2705 Vaccine	Phase 3	Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Infection
SARS-CoV-2 rS/Matrix M1-Adjuvant	Phase 3	SARS-CoV-2 Infection
Influenza VLP Vaccine	Phase 2	Influenza
NanoFlu	Phase 3	Influenza, Human
SARS-CoV-2 rS - Phase 1	Phase 2	COVID-19
Quadrivalent VLP Vaccine	Phase 2	Influenza
RSV-F Vaccine	Phase 3	Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV)
Influenza VLP Vaccine (recombinant)	Phase 2	Influenza
H5N1 VLP Vaccine	Phase 2	Pandemic Influenza
ICC Vaccine	Phase 2	SARS-CoV Infection
Low dose RSV F Antigen	Phase 2	Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infections
Novavax Quadrivalent vaccine	Phase 2	Influenza
Low dose RSV-F Vaccine with Adjuvant	Phase 2	Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV)
qNIV Vaccine with Matrix-M Adjuvant	Phase 2	COVID-19
A/H1N1 2009 Influenza VLP Vaccine	Phase 2	Seasonal Influenza
NVX-CoV2373	Phase 3	SARS-CoV-2 Infection

Price & technical context

3-month

+21.4%

6-month

+44.9%

12-month

+47.4%

52-wk range

$6.22–$11.19

vs 50-day MA

+6.3%

vs 200-day MA

+14.3%

Realized vol

67.2%

Max drawdown

-74.1%

Daily closes through 2026-07-02. Realized vol annualized; max drawdown over ~2 years.

The full dossier is a Pro feature

Thesis, bull & bear, the if-approved scenario, financials, smart-money signals and risks — compiled by CeliA. The catalyst path & pipeline above are free.

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Sources & data

SEC filings — EDGAR filings for NVAX (10-K, 10-Q, S-3, 13D/G, Form 4)
Clinical trials — 20 registered trials on ClinicalTrials.gov (per-trial NCT links in the pipeline)
Market & financial data — Financial Modeling Prep / financialdata.net — prices, statements, key metrics, insider & institutional filings.
Regulatory — openFDA, FDA advisory & PDUFA calendars.

Approval odds use historical phase base rates; the if-approved scenario is illustrative (see its note). Figures trace to the sources above — verify before acting.

Data from CatalystAlert (ClinicalTrials.gov, SEC EDGAR, openFDA, Financial Modeling Prep). Compiled by CeliA. Not financial advice.