← Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) — catalysts, pipeline & price
Catalyst Dossier · compiled by CeliA 🧫
Moderna, Inc. (MRNA)
Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances) · market cap $73.7B · as of 2026-07-09
Research and calibrated estimates, not financial advice — verify before acting.
Next catalyst
2026-10-05 (est.)
Phase 2
Pipeline
20
programs
Upcoming events
7
next 90d+
Dossier
Ready
cached
Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) is a Cambridge, MA-based mRNA biotechnology company with a broad pipeline spanning COVID-19, influenza, RSV, oncology, and rare diseases. Following the collapse of COVID-19 vaccine revenues from a $19.3B peak in 2022 to $1.9B in 2025, the company is burning cash aggressively — $2.8B net loss in 2025 on $3.1B R&D spend — while racing to diversify its revenue base before its ~9-month cash runway forces a reckoning. The stock trades at ~$73.80 against an analyst mean target of ~$45.85, implying the street sees meaningful downside to current levels.
The catalyst path
- 2026-10-05 (est.)Phase 2 · mRNA-1189imp 7/10
- 2026-11-05 (est.)Earningsimp 5/10
- 2026-11-30 (est.)Phase 2 · mRNA-3745imp 7/10
- 2027-01-28 (est.)Phase 3 · mRNA-1018-H5imp 9/10
- 2027-02-15 (est.)Phase 3 · mRNA-1403imp 9/10
- 2027-03-06 (est.)Phase 2 · mRNA-1647imp 7/10
- 2027-08-31 (est.)Phase 2 · mRNA-3927imp 7/10
Pipeline
| Asset | Phase | Indication |
|---|---|---|
| mRNA-1283 | Phase 3 | COVID-19 |
| mRNA-1010 | Phase 3 | Seasonal Influenza |
| mRNA-4157 | Phase 3 | Melanoma |
| Fluarix Tetra | Phase 3 | Seasonal Influenza |
| mRNA-1403 | Phase 3 | Acute Gastroenteritis |
| Influsplit® Tetra | Phase 3 | Seasonal Influenza |
| mRNA-1273.214 | Phase 3 | SARS-CoV-2 |
| mRNA-1083 | Phase 3 | COVID-19 |
| mRNA-1345 | Phase 3 | Respiratory Syncytial Virus |
| mRNA-1647 | Phase 2 | Cytomegalovirus Infection |
| mRNA-1030 | Phase 2 | Seasonal Influenza |
| mRNA-1769 | Phase 2 | Smallpox |
| mRNA-1608 | Phase 2 | Genital Herpes |
| mRNA-1018 for H5N8 | Phase 2 | Influenza |
| mRNA-1273 | Phase 3 | SARS-CoV-2 |
| mRNA-3927 | Phase 2 | Propionic Acidemia |
| Influenza Vaccine | Phase 3 | SARS-CoV-2 |
| Fluarix® | Phase 3 | Seasonal Influenza |
| mRNA-1073 | Phase 2 | SARS-CoV-2 |
| Investigational mRNA-1273.815 | Phase 3 | SARS-CoV-2 |
Price & technical context
3-month
+131.5%
6-month
+284.8%
12-month
+586.0%
52-wk range
$22.36–$203.46
vs 50-day MA
+53.2%
vs 200-day MA
+176.9%
Realized vol
127.1%
Max drawdown
-68.9%
Daily closes through 2026-10-02. Realized vol annualized; max drawdown over ~2 years.
The full dossier is a Pro feature
Thesis, bull & bear, the if-approved scenario, financials, smart-money signals and risks — compiled by CeliA. The catalyst path & pipeline above are free.
Sources & data
- SEC filings — EDGAR filings for MRNA (10-K, 10-Q, S-3, 13D/G, Form 4)
- Clinical trials — 20 registered trials on ClinicalTrials.gov (per-trial NCT links in the pipeline)
- Market & financial data — SEC EDGAR (XBRL filings, Form 4), Yahoo Finance, Nasdaq — prices, statements, key metrics, insider & institutional filings.
- Regulatory — openFDA, FDA advisory & PDUFA calendars.
Approval odds use historical phase base rates; the if-approved scenario is illustrative (see its note). Figures trace to the sources above — verify before acting.
Data from CatalystAlert (ClinicalTrials.gov, SEC EDGAR, openFDA, market-data providers). Compiled by CeliA. Not financial advice.