On July 14, 2026, Erasca, Inc. reached its Offering. The result was a positive outcome, and the stock moved +8.9% in the window around the event. It had already run +31.9% in the 30 days into the catalyst — the kind of pre-event run-up that often precedes binary readouts.
The move
$17.90
1d before
$19.50
Event day
$21.26
1d after
$19.17
5d after
Our prediction vs. the result
CatalystAlert called this one neutral (+0.0% expected); the stock actually moved +8.9%. Model confidence at the time: 35%.
See the full scored track recordPre-catalyst setup
+31.9%
30-day run-up
8067%
30-day volatility
0.5×
volume spike